Pre-print | medrxiv (2021)

Modelling COVID-19 evolution in Italy with an augmented SIRD model using open data

Vincenzo Nardelli, Giuseppe Arbia, Andrea Palladino, Luigi Giuseppe Atzeni

Link to Pre-print

Abstract

We propose an augmented version of the traditional SIRD epidemic model and we estimate its parameters using the SaRs-Cov-2 Italian open-data. The model’s parameters are estimated partly using numerical optimization and partly with ABC. Our estimation procedure provides a good fit to real data.

Covid Epidemic